The great war on terror is coming to an end not by defeating the enemy but by retreating from the battlefield. The United States of America, the country that started this war is abandoning its bases in the dead of night. It is exiting the war, putting the burden on Afghanistan's neighbors to clear its mess.

The United States invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 with the goal of destroying Al-Qaeda and its Taliban hosts. Twenty years on, the US has nothing to show for the sorry adventure and doesn't even want to discuss it. For the Afghans, the list of happy things is shrinking day by day. The Taliban captured all the Afghan land with virtually no resistance; undoing decades of progress in a matter of days. Today, the Taliban has more than 85,000 full-time fighters. They all come from younger and radical carters. The size of the Afghan army was twice that of the Taliban and yet they lost.

Afghan troops surrendered their weapons, abandoned important check posts, and ran away without putting up a fight. They embraced the Taliban as a legitimate force. We now have a terror outfit running a whole big country; controlling its resources, politics, and borders. It's a security disaster in the making, not just for Afghanistan but also for its neighbors. Pakistan and China may see an opportunity in the Taliban's rise but for India, this is a serious threat.

Possible Threats To India

First of all, there's a risk to India's financial interests and investments. India had invested more than $3 billion in Afghanistan facilitating more than 400 projects in all 34 provinces. This includes dams, schools, hospitals. All of these installations were already captured. Then there is a threat to Indians living and working in Afghanistan. Currently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has evacuated the Indian embassy in Afghanistan, with more than 130+ Indians including diplomats and common citizens.

On July 16, Indian photojournalist Danish Siddiqui was killed. He was on a reporting assignment in Kandahar. But the things are taking a dangerous turn and the worries for India are not limited to what happens inside of Afghanistan. It does have a direct bearing on India's security.

Look at this map now. This is India with China in the north, a perpetual bully intent on breaching borders, and Pakistan in the west, a perpetual nuisance intent on destabilizing Kashmir. Now add a Taliban-run Afghanistan to this equation and India would become the frontline against terror and expansionism. It's not a question of if, but when.

An alliance of China, Pakistan, and the Taliban is not a far-fetched scenario. Pakistan & China are partners in crime. Every stakeholder involved in Afghanistan knows that the Taliban functions with the blessing of Pakistan's deep state operating from Quetta and Peshawar. America lost the war only because of Pakistan's duplicity, and it is Pakistan that is helping the Taliban take control now.

Pakistan: An Ally of the Taliban

The ex-vice president of Afghanistan had said this on record, that the Taliban forces are being trained by the Pakistan military and directed from Quetta and Peshawar. He also said that the Pakistan Air Force is providing close air support to the Taliban in certain areas.

And why just the Afghan lawmakers? Pakistan's politicians themselves have accepted the fact in the country's parliament. Pakistan and Taliban, it's cruel rhyme with shady history and many lessons. The most important chapter is “Kashmir”. Taliban has always acted as a force multiplier for Pakistan on Kashmir.

This affair has now reignited extremists in Pakistan and they are celebrating the Taliban's return. A few weeks ago, a rally was held in Quetta in support of the Taliban. Pro Taliban slogans were raised. Some even brought flags of the Islamic caliphate. There's also been a surge in fundraising for the Taliban donations increasing in Balochistan with shopkeepers and local bazaars willing to spend as much as 10,000 rupees each. Also, there are reports that Pak terror groups are joining forces with the Taliban. To name a few: lascar-e-taiyyaba, tahreek-e-taliban, jaish-e-mohammad are some usual suspects.

What's common between all these terror groups? They all want Kashmir. Every Indian knows how far they're willing to go for this. So let's focus on the likely security consequences in the future for India.

Rising Challenges Against India | Possession Of Kashmir

1. With the Taliban gaining strength they will definitely be a rise in religious nationalism Pan-Islamism (a political ideology advocating the unity of Muslims under one Islamic country or state) and Jihad (the literal meaning of Jihad is struggle or effort, and it means much more than holy war) and this will raise hopes and boost the morale of several terror outfits operating along with Kashmir. They will seize every opportunity to infiltrate the border.

2. With the increasing penetration of social media and recent restoration of 4G services, it would be naive to believe that the Taliban's propaganda, glorified stories of ambushes, and missions will not find a way to Kashmir. Also now we know that weapons invariably follow propaganda and that is a third concern.

These weapons are being used by the Taliban: American-made sniper rifles, hand-held radars, and camera-equipped drones. If these weapons find their way into Jammu and Kashmir, the situation could be explosive.

3. The last major concern is internationalizing Kashmir. That's something they will try to do. The Taliban is now being seen and treated as a legitimate stakeholder in Afghanistan. They have diplomatic relations with the international community and they even have a diplomatic office based in Qatar which was used to strike the peace deal that brought no peace.

The Taliban's position will be leveraged by Pakistan. If one terror group can be legitimized, what's stopping the others to battle for the same? The challenge is real. The question is what can India do? What options does India have?

India is hoping that a dialogue will deliver. Talks may already be underway. Despite all indications, the government of India has not confirmed that it is talking with the Taliban. On 9/20/20, the foreign ministry signaled the interest for the first time when the Indian foreign minister participated in the intra-Afghan peace talks.

Actions India can take in Defence

1. Now there are reports that Indian security officials have opened channels of communication with some Taliban factions. These factions are said to be nationalists and outside the sphere of influence of Pakistan.

2. On a military level, India will have to strengthen the existing security mechanisms, especially its security shield in Jammu and Kashmir. It will have to make the most of new technologies like military drones which are transforming modern warfare.

3. On a societal level, India will need to strengthen its ability to handle terror in urban areas because the Taliban's ideology might flourish.

4. On a political level India will have to keep a check on separatist leaders willing to ride the Pakistan boats and on extremists looking forward to creating any trouble. India will have to make some diplomatic moves as well.

The bottom line is:

This is resurgent. Taliban is now a reality and it is not going to stop after the invasion of Afghanistan. These are all the approximate predictions that can be figured for the foreseeable future. It will have to be dealt with at every level, but one thing that must be remembered is that the Taliban at the end of the day is still a terror outfit. It has survived a superpower for 2 decades. Afghanistan today is the result of a series of blunders and deceits. Unfortunately for India, this is the card, it has been dealt.